Friday, May 17, 2013

Japan has been good to me.

In more ways than one, Japan has been good to me.

First, my wife just got back from the market in Yamato with a new Chu-Hi that I have not had before. Made by a company called Oenon, it's about 6% joy with 2.5% juice. Love you baby.

Second, I had a good result for my long USD/JPY trade that played out over the last week. As in a previous tweet (Don't forget to follow me @B50cal1978), I noted that I was long 2 lots of USD/JPY at about 100.20. I had a 100 pip trailing stop that brought my exit up to 101.81, which was hit on Wednesday for a gain of about 160 pips.

I have been trying to enter the Euro short against the USD last week, and over 3 trades trying to enter, I am negative 12 pips. First trade was on a break below 1.30 of which I banked 38 pips, and put a new entry for a break below 1.295. Got stopped out on that one. Later in the week I went for an entry below 1.2930, got filled. Eventually, this position was positive by 50 pips and I brought the stop up to break even. At this point I was hoping to begin trailing in some profits, but this was not to be. And my third attempt to enter Euro short was stopped at break even.

This week, I'm looking for a corrective rebound in gold and the Australian Dollar. With gold, I'll be using the GLD, and I have an order in for a GLD Jun 22 135 call to play an anticipated correction back into the 137/140 level in the GLD ahead of further declines in gold.

Because of the oversold nature of AUD, I'm going to looking very closely at going Short Euro, against the Aussie.

My experiment in Currency ETF's and Reverse Iron Condors continues. My aforementioned monthly RIC in FXE was closed for a slight profit, and FXB was closed for a slight loss. For those that follow currencies, had I been able to get enough volume to get filled in my May RIC for FXA, I would have gotten full profit. There is very low volume in FXA, so I was never filled.

I have anecdotal data from a trader on the Seeking Alpha website that had a 75% success rate (9 out of 12) using a Reverse Iron Condor strategy on Google (GOOG) with his long strikes set at a Delta of 20 to 22 on entry. I am interested in this, and have a order in for a GOOG RIC to expire Jun 22, with the long strikes at a Delta of 23 on the call side, and 25 on the put side. My short strikes are $10 out from my longs, so possible ROI on the trade is about 125%. Update to follow in June.

Comments and questions are welcome. Let's get a conversation started.

STT

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