Friday, March 7, 2014

Swing trading Forex

Hello Traders,

I haven't posted in a while, but I just wanted to share some of the winners I have had in the last couple of months in Forex. I have a bunch of pictures of the before and after that are pretty much self explanatory.

My current system is very simple and only uses two indicators on a 4 hour chart.
  1. A 200 period Simple Moving Average.
  2. Parabolic SAR on the standard setting
First is a long AUS/USD trade that I took after noting in early February that price action had pierced the 200SMA and held. I watched for about a month as price action held above the 200SMA for the last 30 days causing it to rise. Then, noting in March that the price action touched the rising 200SMA, and the PSAR showed a green dot, I decided to take a shot. Long AUD/USD 2 lots, with T1 at +70 pips, and T2 at +140 pips.




For the Aussie trade above, I moved the stops to breakeven shortly before the first target was hit, and was lucky enough to have the second target close at .9100 the next day.

The next trade is a short EUR/USD trade that I took because the Euro had broken down through the 200SMA on the 4 hour chart and failed a further test of the Moving average making a lower low. I watched as Euro struggled along the moving average, but when price action moved below the wick of the lowest candle of the previous three days, I pulled the trigger.

 
After the first target was hit the stops were moved to breakeven.

 
Then, after a small retracement, there was continued momentum to the downside, so I moved the stop for the second lot to the top of the retracement.


On this one price action returned and was stopped out for about 50 pips above breakeven on the second lot.

If you want to talk swing trading or have any questions become a follower of the Small Time Trader. In the near future, I'll post some of my latest options trades. Some winners, some not, but I'm always learning.

Follow me on Twitter @ B50cal1978

I try to post everything real time as far as currency trades go, if you want to see what I'm looking at.

Good luck trading,
STT

Thursday, January 2, 2014

Kiwis are a short bird

Hello traders,

Just wanted to post about something that doesn't happen as often as it should to me: A successful trade!

Most of my successful trades in currencies have happened using a 4 hour chart with the 200 period MA as a trend filter. Simple right?

I have actually found that the less indicators I use, the more successful trades I have ended up bagging.

Here's the setup for my short NZD/USD trade:


I noticed that the 200 period moving average has shown that the NZD though with some volatility has been trending downward, making lower highs and lower lows. I decided to enter when after testing the 200 MA price action dropped below, and a red candle followed in the next four hour period. When this first red candle closed (2AM EST) I went short 2 lots. T1 was based on risk of 30 pips for the first lot, and T2 was 60 pips or twice the risk.



After T1 was hit (5:47 AM EST) the stop on the second lot was moved to break even.


 
T2 followed shortly thereafter (6:07AM EST) for 90 total pips.

I don't normally go short high interest currencies, but I decided to hop on this setup, and I'm glad I did.

Good luck trading in the new year,
STT

Friday, December 13, 2013

Back in business

Good morning traders,

I'm back from my regularly scheduled deployment.

It took a couple of weeks to get back into trading after essentially 5 months of no access to my currency platform, and severely limited internet access for stock and options trading.

Here's a couple of pics and a video from my latest jaunt throughout the Pacific:

 
Above is barbecued chicken and baby octopus with a sweet and spicy sauce from Busan Korea


And here is our maintenance officer during an intercept of a Russian IL-38 near the sea of Japan.
 
 
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/pc-Z00J7lz8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
 
On Thursday I was able to pull 98 pips by shorting Aussie against the US Dollar. I use a 4 hour chart, with a 200 period moving average as a trend direction indicator. I'm using Parabolic SAR as an entry trigger when price action is below the 200 MA.
 
I had good luck with this during my summer break, and my first trade back is validating the strategy for me.
 
 
As always, comment if something catches your fancy or if you have any questions or want to talk stocks options and currencies.
 
Keep trading,
STT




Monday, September 2, 2013

I'm a fan of Yen right now.

Here's an FB picture of one of my tankers headed out to do it's duty. I work on the Aerial Refueling Store that hangs on the centerline station.



Anyway, I'm back in Japan for couple of weeks before I go back out to sea to complete this year's deployment. I didn't trade for the week I was back, but then the currency bug bit and I started going over setups. On the 27th, I entered a USD/JPY range trade on the 4 hour chart that just ended swimmingly at my 200 pip target.



Nothing special, just a range trade. I drew the channel lines after the trade closed to watch if the price action will break the channel over the next couple of days.

Happy to be back. As always, comment on the blog if you see something of interest, or have any questions. I don't just post winners, so go back over some older posts and check out what not to do.

Good Luck trading,
STT


Thursday, June 20, 2013

To Trade, or not to Trade

Good evening traders,

On Monday I placed an entry to long NZD/USD at about .7945 as the pair moved above the Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart.


The above chart illustrates what I was looking for at the time. Price action was above the cloud, and NZD was showing strength against most pairs over the previous couple of days.

I had recently come off of a 184 pip winner on Aussie using a 50% retracement strategy to enter, and I placed my long NZD/USD entry based on a similar chart formation.

After failing to get tagged in at my entry, I pulled my order due event risk on the economic calendar.

 
As you can see, the FOMC meeting is placed above all other news on Wednesday, and for good reason.


The market unilaterally bought the USD dollar against most other assets and Indexes in the close of Wednesday's New York session.

I managed to sidestep a nearly instant 53 pip loss.

Here's the moral of my quick story. Don't be so focused on technical formations and patterns that you're not aware of events that can move the market. It's ok not to enter if the fundamentals, technical and news don't line up. If the story behind your trade changes, change your trade with the story.

Since the major event risk is past us, I'm looking to possibly short Cable against a 50% retracement of the FOMC drop, or 1.5550. Over the next couple of days I'll look for a manual entry, and bounce it off of next week's calendar.

Comments and questions are welcome. Follow the blog and check in regularly for updates. Let's start a conversation!

Thanks,
STT